A new poll conducted July 17 – July 19 by Victory Research shows Gov. JB Pritzker ahead of challenger Darren Bailey by about 10%. When asked whom you would vote for if the election were held today, 39% said Bailey and 48.9% said Pritzker.

But when asked whether Pritzker deserves another term, Illinois voters were split nearly evenly, with 46.6% saying it’s time for a new governor while 47.3% would give Pritzker another term.

What’s perhaps most striking, though not so unusual in Republican-Democratic contests, is the concentration of Pritzker’s support in Cook County. The poll shows him up by 7.5% in suburban Cook County and a whopping 55.5% in the City of Chicago. Bailey is ahead in every other section of the state including, most notably, Chicago’s collar counties. On whether Pritzker should be replaced, however, only City of Chicago voters support another term for Pritzker; even Cook County suburbs prefer someone new.

Notable also is that the widely reported national shift of Hispanic voters to Republicans does not yet appear to be evident in the race. The poll shows Pritzker ahead by over 29% with Hispanics.

-Mark Glennon

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